Can Anybody Beat the Market? (2024)

The phrase "beating the market" means earning an investment return that exceeds the performance of the Standard & Poor's 500 index. Commonly called the S&P 500, it's one of the most popular benchmarks of the overall U.S. stock market performance.

Everybody tries to beat it, but few succeed.

The Barriers

Investment fees are one major barrier to beating the market. If you take the popular advice to invest in an S&P 500 index fund rather than on individual stocks, your fund's performance should be identical to the performance of the S&P 500, for better or worse. But investment fees will be subtracted from those returns, so you won't quite match it, never mind beat it. Look for index funds with ultra-low fees of 0.05% to 0.2% a year, and you'll get close to equaling the market, though you won't beat it.

Taxes are another major barrier to beating the market. When you pay tax on your investment returns, you lose a significant percentage of your profit. The capital gains tax rate is 15% to 20%, unless your income is very low. And that's the tax on investments held for at least one year. Stocks held for a shorter-term are taxed as ordinary income.

Investor psychology presents a third barrier to beating the market. Perversely, most people have a tendency to buy high and sell low because they're inclined to buy when the market is performing well and sell out of fear when the market starts to drop. This one at least is within your control. Learn how to analyze a stock and consider the company's potential for future gains. It's not foolproof, but at least you'll be buying for sound reasons.

Risk Is Key

One way to try to beat the market is to take on more risk, but while greater risk can bring greater returns it can also bring greater losses.

You might also be able to outperform the market if you have superior information. There are few ways that an individual investor can possess superior information unless they are company insiders, and trading on nonpublic information is a serious crime called insider trading.

Defined more broadly, though, you may have superior information based on your expertise in an industry or a product. There's no crime in investing in what you know.

Some investors have made fortunes through what appear to be superior analytical skills. Household names like Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett achieved their successes by picking individual stocks. Many individuals you've never heard of have attempted similar strategies and failed. Even most professional mutual fund managers can't beat the market.

Sometimes It's Just Luck

Meaning no disrespect, Lynch and Buffett may have just been exceptionally lucky, even if they are financial whizzes. Highly regarded economists have shown that a portfolio of randomly chosen stocks can perform as well as a carefully assembled one.

Yes, you may be able to beat the market, but with investment fees, taxes, and human emotion working against you, you're more likely to do so through luck than skill. If you can merely match the S&P 500, minus a small fee, you'll be doing better than most investors.

Can Anybody Beat the Market? (2024)

FAQs

Can Anybody Beat the Market? ›

Yes, you may be able to beat the market, but with investment fees, taxes, and human emotion working against you, you're more likely to do so through luck than skill.

Can anyone actually beat the market? ›

It is relatively common to beat the market for 1–3 years at a time. That can largely be explained by luck. But the data clearly shows that even professional fund managers are unable to beat the market consistently over a longer period of time, like 10–15 years.

How can you beat the market? ›

The four simple rules to beating the market
  1. Get your financial house in order. You should only be investing when a few very important boxes can be checked off: ...
  2. Don't "be" the market. There are huge benefits to diversification. ...
  3. Don't pay high fees. The fees you pay for your investments seem so tiny. ...
  4. Invest for the long run.

Is it possible to beat S&P 500? ›

It's not easy to beat the S&P 500. In fact, most hedge funds and mutual funds underperform the S&P 500 over an extended period of time. That's because the S&P 500 selects from a large pool of stocks and continuously refreshes its holdings, dumping underperformers and replacing them with up-and-coming growth stocks.

Can we beat the stock market? ›

Figuring out whether you can beat the market is not easy one, but the answers generally vary depending on who you ask. The average investor may not have a very good chance of beating the market. Regular investors may be able to achieve better risk-adjusted returns by focusing on losing less.

What percentage of financial advisors beat the S&P 500? ›

Key Points. Less than 10% of active large-cap fund managers have outperformed the S&P 500 over the last 15 years. The biggest drag on investment returns is unavoidable, but you can minimize it if you're smart. Here's what to look for when choosing a simple investment that can beat the Wall Street pros.

How many managers beat the S&P 500? ›

Unsurprisingly, the majority do not beat those benchmarks, and even the ones who do don't keep their lead for long. Over its 23-year history, the SPIVA report shows that, on average, 64% of active large-cap fund managers fare worse than their benchmark (the S&P 500) in any given year.

How do I know if I'm beating the market? ›

The market average can be calculated in many ways, but usually a benchmark – such as the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones Industrial Average index – is a good representation of the market average. If your returns exceed the percentage return of the chosen benchmark, you have beaten the market.

Do money managers beat the market? ›

If a manager invests $100,000 in a company, it may go largely unnoticed. If he invests $1 million, he may raise the stock price in the process. The upshot is that while some money managers can beat the market, they can ultimately become victims of their own success.

How many pros beat the market? ›

Most pros can't beat the market 🥊

Over a three-year period, 79.8% underperformed. Over a 10-year period, 85.6% underperformed. And over a 20-year period, 93.6% underperformed.

Does money double every 7 years? ›

For example, the Rule of 72 states that $1 invested at an annual fixed interest rate of 10% would take 7.2 years ((72 ÷ 10) = 7.2) to grow to $2. In reality, a 10% investment will take 7.3 years to double (1.107.3 = 2).

What percent of day traders beat the market? ›

Studies have shown that more than 97% of day traders lose money over time, and less than 1% of day traders are actually profitable.

Does Warren Buffett outperform the S&P? ›

"Slightly better" than the average American corporation

Since Buffett took control of Berkshire Hathaway in 1965, the stock has trounced the S&P 500. Its compound annual gain through 2023 was 19.8% versus 10.2% for the broader index. But Buffett says those days of market-trouncing returns are behind it.

Why do 90% of people lose money in the stock market? ›

Staggering data reveals 90% of retail investors underperform the broader market. Lack of patience and undisciplined trading behaviors cause most losses. Insufficient market knowledge and overconfidence lead to costly mistakes. Tips from famous investors on how to achieve long-term success.

Should I hold cash or invest now? ›

Saving is generally seen as preferable for investors with short-term financial goals, a low risk tolerance, or those in need of an emergency fund. Investing may be the best option for people who already have a rainy-day fund and are focused on longer-term financial goals or those who have a higher risk tolerance.

How many stock traders beat the market? ›

And the percentage of active managers who do beat the market is usually pretty small – fewer than 8% in most of the cases above over the last 15 years; and they may not sustain that performance in the future.

What percentage of people beat the market? ›

Over time, the odds of you beating the market only diminish. To prove this, let's look at an example: We saw from the data above that an investor has about a 75% chance of underperforming the market in any given year which means you have a 25% chance of beating the market in any given year.

What percent of professionals beat the market? ›

Question: Over a recent 20 year period, what percent of pros investing in large companies "beat the market? Answer: 94% of investment pros underperformed (see below), so 6% outperformed.

Who has consistently beat the market? ›

Warren Buffett

Those who invested $10,000 in Berkshire Hathaway in 1965 are above the $60.2 million mark today. 1314 Buffett's investing style of discipline, patience, and value has consistently outperformed the market for decades.

What percent of active traders beat the market? ›

From 2010 through 2021, anywhere from 55 percent to 87 percent of actively managed funds that invest in S&P 500 stocks couldn't beat that benchmark in any given year. Compared with that, the results for 2022 were cause for celebration: About 51 percent of large-cap stock funds failed to beat the S&P 500.

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