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What are the drawbacks of multiples?
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What is DCF?
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What are the benefits of DCF?
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What are the challenges of DCF?
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How to choose between multiples and DCF?
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Here’s what else to consider
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When it comes to valuing a business, project, or asset, there are two common methods: multiples and discounted cash flow (DCF). Both have their advantages and disadvantages, depending on the context, purpose, and assumptions. In this article, we will compare and contrast these two valuation techniques and help you decide which one is more suitable for your budgeting and forecasting needs.
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- Saïd EL MZABI +1000 étudiants en finance formés @IIGSF | +100K abonnés | Plus de 30 millions de vues de contenu
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- Mohamed Idris ,CMSA®, FinTech(FTIP)™, FPWM™
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1 What are multiples?
Multiples are ratios that compare the value of a company or asset to a financial metric, such as earnings, revenue, or cash flow. For example, the price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple measures how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. Multiples can be derived from the market prices of comparable companies or assets, or from industry norms or benchmarks. Multiples are easy to calculate and understand, and they reflect the current market sentiment and expectations.
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- Saïd EL MZABI +1000 étudiants en finance formés @IIGSF | +100K abonnés | Plus de 30 millions de vues de contenu
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Hello ,l'utilisation de multiples pour l'analyse comparative offre une approche simple et basée sur le marché, tandis que l'analyse DCF permet une évaluation intrinsèque plus détaillée mais exigeante en ressources et sujette à des hypothèses sensibles.
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See AlsoDiscounted Cash Flow (DCF) Explained With Formula and ExamplesValuation Techniques Overview | Street Of WallsDiscounted Cash Flow - Use, Formula, BenefitsMaking discounted cash flow mainstreamCelebrate
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Multiples are ratios that compare the value of a company or asset to a financial metric, such as earnings, revenue, or cash flow. For example, the price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple measures how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. Multiples can be derived from the market prices of comparable companies or assets, or from industry norms or benchmarks. Multiples are easy to calculate and understand, and they reflect the current market sentiment and expectations. Remember: Valuation Multiple= Value measure/Value Driver
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A valuation created by multiples makes the benchmark much simpler. When using the DCF, the structuring and particularities of the business can be seen with more sensitivity.
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2 What are the drawbacks of multiples?
However, multiples also have some limitations and challenges. First, finding truly comparable companies or assets can be difficult, especially for unique or niche businesses. Second, multiples can be affected by accounting differences, such as depreciation methods, inventory valuation, or revenue recognition. Third, multiples do not account for the growth potential, risk profile, or competitive advantage of the company or asset being valued. Fourth, multiples can be influenced by market cycles, trends, and anomalies, which may not reflect the intrinsic value of the company or asset.
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- Mohamed Idris ,CMSA®, FinTech(FTIP)™, FPWM™
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It is worth mentioning that multiples do not take hazard into explicit consideration. If multiples are the only measure used, it is possible to overlook the fact that two firms with identical multiples really have very different risk profiles.
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One that sticks out to me the most is that multiples do not explicitly incorporate risk. Two companies with the same multiple may have different risk profiles, and using multiples alone may not capture these differences.
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3 What is DCF?
DCF is a valuation method that estimates the present value of the future cash flows generated by a company or asset. DCF involves projecting the cash flows over a forecast period, usually based on the expected growth rate, operating margin, and capital expenditure. Then, a terminal value is calculated to capture the value beyond the forecast period, usually based on a perpetual growth rate or an exit multiple. Finally, the cash flows and the terminal value are discounted to the present using a discount rate, which reflects the risk and opportunity cost of investing in the company or asset.
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4 What are the benefits of DCF?
DCF has several advantages over multiples. First, DCF is based on the intrinsic value of the company or asset, rather than on the market price or the performance of peers. Second, DCF allows for more flexibility and customization, as it can incorporate different scenarios, assumptions, and sensitivities. Third, DCF can capture the value of intangible assets, such as brand equity, intellectual property, or customer loyalty. Fourth, DCF can account for the time value of money, which means that cash flows received sooner are worth more than cash flows received later.
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DCF analysis explicitly considers the time value of money and focuses on future cash flows. This makes it a more comprehensive and accurate method for valuing a company based on its ability to generate cash. a companies ability to generate cash flows is highly valuable to investors.
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- Mohamed Idris ,CMSA®, FinTech(FTIP)™, FPWM™
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In cash flow analysis, the time value of money is taken into consideration, and the focus is placed on cash flows that are expected to take place in the future. In comparison to other methods, this method is both more precise and comprehensive. This is due to the fact that the ability of a company to generate cash serves as the foundation for valuation. When it comes to investing, one of the most crucial considerations to take into account is a company's ability to generate cash flows.
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5 What are the challenges of DCF?
However, DCF also has some drawbacks and difficulties. First, DCF relies heavily on the accuracy and reliability of the cash flow projections, which can be uncertain and subjective. Second, DCF requires choosing an appropriate discount rate, which can be challenging and controversial. Third, DCF can be sensitive to small changes in the inputs, such as the growth rate, the terminal value, or the discount rate, which can result in large variations in the output. Fourth, DCF can be complex and time-consuming to perform and explain, especially for non-financial audiences.
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6 How to choose between multiples and DCF?
There is no definitive answer to which valuation method is better or more appropriate. It depends on the context, purpose, and availability of data and information. Multiples are more suitable for quick and simple valuations, or for comparing relative values across a group of similar companies or assets. DCF is more suitable for detailed and comprehensive valuations, or for capturing the unique value drivers and risks of a specific company or asset. Ideally, both methods should be used and compared to get a range of values and to cross-check the assumptions and results.
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7 Here’s what else to consider
This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?
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