Are fixed income investments good right now?
Bond yields are higher than they've been in nearly 15 years, presenting investors with a variety of opportunities regarding fixed-income. The economic backdrop has also improved recently and is poised to be favorable in 2024 given falling inflation trends and subsequent likely rate cuts from the Fed.
Looking ahead: Our positive view on the value of fixed income still holds. We expect interest rates to ultimately settle above the unusually low levels experienced after the 2008 global financial crisis. Investors can capture durable, resilient yields, and if rates decline, additional price appreciation.
Bond funds staged a fourth-quarter comeback in 2023. Through late October, the Morningstar US Core Bond Index, a proxy for the broad fixed-income market, was on pace for a third-consecutive year of losses as uncertainty around a hard or soft landing lingered and interest-rate volatility persisted.
The fixed rate rose to 0.4% in November 2022 so any I bond purchased after that date should be held. Likewise, you may want to hold on to I bonds issued between May and October 2023. Those I bonds have a fixed rate of 0.9%, which is the highest fixed rate in 16 years.
“Although some volatility may continue, we believe interest rates have peaked,” predicts Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. “We expect lower Treasury yields and positive returns for investors in 2024.”
Fixed income has outperformed both cash and equities during recessions in the US since 1972. Interest rates tend to begin to decline three months ahead of recessions and reach a cycle low about five months into recessions.
In line with the outlook from other investment providers, the firm is forecasting a 5.7% gain in 2024 for U.S. investment-grade bonds, versus 4.9% last year and 2.3% in 2022. (All figures are nominal.)
The table on the right shows that bond prices often recover within 8 to 12 months. Unnerved investors that are selling their bond funds risk missing out when bond returns recover.
Including bonds in your investment mix makes sense even when interest rates may be rising. Bonds' interest component, a key aspect of total return, can help cushion price declines resulting from increasing interest rates.
Interest rate changes are the primary culprit when bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lose value. As interest rates rise, the prices of existing bonds fall, which impacts the value of the ETFs holding these assets.
How much is a $100 savings bond worth after 30 years?
| Face Value | Purchase Amount | 30-Year Value (Purchased May 1990) |
|---|---|---|
| $50 Bond | $100 | $207.36 |
| $100 Bond | $200 | $414.72 |
| $500 Bond | $400 | $1,036.80 |
| $1,000 Bond | $800 | $2,073.60 |
Moving 401(k) assets into bonds could make sense if you're closer to retirement age or you're generally a more conservative investor overall. However, doing so could potentially cost you growth in your portfolio over time.
While bonds are safer than stocks and may provide a fixed return on your investments, many experts agree that they should be one component of a more diverse investing strategy.
Given where we are now (i.e., post-Covid, falling inflation, higher rates, restoration of bonds' diversification benefits), we believe that the case for fixed-income is very strong. Although cash rates are currently attractive, investment-grade credit yields are currently offering outperformance.
The top picks for 2024, chosen for their stability, income potential and expert management, include Dodge & Cox Income Fund (DODIX), iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG), Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND), Pimco Long Duration Total Return (PLRIX), and American Funds Bond Fund of America (ABNFX).
Bond prices move in inverse fashion to interest rates, reflecting an important bond investing consideration known as interest rate risk. If bond yields decline, the value of bonds already on the market move higher. If bond yields rise, existing bonds lose value.
On the negative side, energy and infrastructure stocks have been the hardest-hit in recent recessions. Companies in these sectors are acutely sensitive to swings in demand. Financials stocks also can suffer during recessions because of a rising default rate and shrinking net interest margins.
Cash, large-cap stocks and gold can be good investments during a recession. Stocks that tend to fluctuate with the economy and cryptocurrencies can be unstable during a recession.
Do Bonds Lose Money in a Recession? Bonds can perform well in a recession as investors tend to flock to bonds rather than stocks in times of economic downturns. This is because stocks are riskier as they are more volatile when markets are not doing well.
Key Takeaways: Growth stocks may see a robust 2024 on the strength of trends such as AI disruption and decarbonization. Small-cap stocks are trading at attractive valuations as analysts see the possibility of a rebound in 2024. The time could be right for locking in rates on long-term, high-yield bonds.
Where to invest 2024?
- High-yield savings accounts.
- Long-term certificates of deposit.
- Long-term corporate bond funds.
- Dividend stock funds.
- Value stock funds.
- Small-cap stock funds.
- REIT funds.
- S&P 500 index funds.
Key takeaways
A more challenging macro backdrop is anticipated for equity markets in 2024. Lackluster earnings growth and geopolitical risks are set to weigh on the outlook for stocks. J.P. Morgan analysts estimate S&P 500 earnings growth of 2–3% and a price target of 4,200, with a downside bias.
Probably the top fixed income question we've received in 2023 is when it's appropriate to begin moving bond allocations from ultra-short-maturity bonds and money market funds back into core bonds. Gauging by 2024 rate hike expectations, the answer is probably sometime around now.
Top four schemes in the category offered over 7%. ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund, the topper in the category, offered 7.60% in 2023. Aditya Birla Sun Life Corporate Bond Fund offered 7.29%. HDFC Corporate Bond Fund gave 7.20%.
When interest rates rise, prices of existing bonds tend to fall, even though the coupon rates remain constant, and yields go up. Conversely, when interest rates fall, prices of existing bonds tend to rise, their coupon remains constant – and yields go down.
