Netflix is just a 15% gain away from taking out its 2021 highs. Just keep watching.
It's been a good run for folks that have been binge investing in Netflix (NFLX -2.52%). The stock has more than doubled since the start of last year. Even in 2024 -- with many of last year's winners proving mortal -- shares of the leading premium video service provider are beating the market, up 26% year to date.
Netflix stock hit a 52-week high in January after posting blowout fourth-quarter results, and that's not all. Netflix has notched a 52-week high in each of the past five months (including last week to keep the streak going in March). However, it still has a pocketful of upticks to go before it can take out the all-time high of $700.99 it reached in November 2021. Will it get there? Can it get there this year? Let's take a closer look at Netflix and its chances to hit a new high-water mark in 2024.
Target practice
It's been a good week for fans of analysts jacking up Netflix price targets. Jason Helfstein at Oppenheimerboosted his price goal on the shares from $615 to $725 on Monday, encouraged by recent developments for the company. He sees the potential for improving monetization for its discounted ad-supported tier. Furthermore, the crackdown on password-sharing has given Netflix an additional revenue stream now that it's allowing members to pay more to add a friend or relative that isn't living in the same place to their account. A subscription rate increase in October should also help in boosting average revenue per member 4% this year, a metric that rose just 2.5% for domestic users in 2023.
On Tuesday, it was Jefferies analyst Andrew Uerkwitz taking his turn to put out an encouraging note. He is lifting his price target from $580 to $700. Uerkwitz is adjusting his subscriber estimates higher given the weak competitive landscape and healthy engagement with the password-sharing measures introduced last year.
Both analysts are naturally sticking to their bullish ratings on Netflix. Hitting the Oppenheimer target and likely hitting the Jefferies target later this year will be enough to score a new all-time high. It can happen.
Image source: Getty Images.
Waiting for a Hollywood ending
Investors getting giddy after a well-received financial update earlier this year isn't necessarily a permanent fixture. The last time the stock traded that high -- roughly 24 months earlier -- it plummeted 70% over the course of the next four months. Momentum is a blessing and not a birthright.
It will hopefully be different this time. For starters, a huge advantage for Netflix right now is that it's consistently profitable. It generated $6.9 billion in free cash flow in 2023. This is noteworthy because the same can't be said about most of its major media competitors. Rivals are cutting content costs to live up to financial targets. Netflix isn't flinching at cutting big checks for high-profile movies or shows. It's even getting serious about live sports and sports entertainment, with deals this year for distribution of WWE's Raw and streaming rights for the Mike Tyson and Jake Paul fight this summer.
Netflix is in a great spot. Subscribers aren't balking at higher price points and the password-sharing crackdown because they know it's the one major service that isn't cutting corners. There are now more than 260 million paid members worldwide, and the company gained 13.1 million viewers in just the last three months of 2023.
Netflix is poised for further success. The competition is getting weaker. It's getting stronger. It was always elite among the streaming services stocks, and with the market expecting another year of double-digit growth on both ends of the income statement, good luck denying Netflix a shot at a new all-time high in 2024. The stock is now just 15% away from getting there. Another strong quarter or two -- or even a rival or two throwing in the towel -- should get it there before the end of this year.
Rick Munarriz has positions in Netflix. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Jefferies Financial Group and Netflix. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
FAQs
It's getting stronger. It was always elite among the streaming services stocks, and with the market expecting another year of double-digit growth on both ends of the income statement, good luck denying Netflix a shot at a new all-time high in 2024. The stock is now just 15% away from getting there.
Will Netflix stock go up in 2024? ›
Netflix expects revenue to be around $9.5 billion in Q4, in line with consensus estimates, and up from $8.18 billion in the prior-year quarter. Management anticipates consistent revenue growth of 13% to 15% for fiscal year 2024. According to analysts, revenue could grow by 14.5% in 2024 and 12% in 2025.
How high can Netflix stock go? ›
NFLX Stock 12 Month Forecast
Based on 36 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Netflix in the last 3 months. The average price target is $657.61 with a high forecast of $800.00 and a low forecast of $440.00. The average price target represents a 17.54% change from the last price of $559.49.
What would $1 000 invested in Netflix stock 10 years ago be worth now? ›
So, if you had invested in Netflix ten years ago, you're likely feeling pretty good about your investment today. A $1000 investment made in March 2014 would be worth $9,728.72, or a gain of 872.87%, as of March 4, 2024, according to our calculations. This return excludes dividends but includes price appreciation.
What will Netflix's stock price be in 2025? ›
Long-Term NetFlix Stock Price Predictions
| Year | Prediction | Change |
|---|
| 2025 | $ 787.76 | 29.78% |
| 2026 | $ 1,022.37 | 68.43% |
| 2027 | $ 1,326.85 | 118.60% |
| 2028 | $ 1,722.01 | 183.70% |
2 more rowsNetflix to Stop Providing Subscriber Numbers in 2025, Marking End of an Era in Streaming Wars. The company said the change is coming amid different pricing for plans and a greater focus on revenue and engagement.
How much will Netflix make in Q1 2024? ›
Wall Street forecast earnings per share of $4.26 on $8.73 billion in revenue for Netflix's Q1 2024, according to analyst consensus data provided by LSEG, formerly Refinitiv. Netflix reported diluted EPS of $5.28 on $9.37 billion in revenue. That revenue marks a 15% increase from Q1 2023.
What will Netflix be worth in 2030? ›
The stock's total value must multiply by nearly 5 before reaching a $1 trillion market cap -- an ambitious goal that calls for time and patience. A more reasonable, yet consistently market-beating, estimate suggests Netflix could reach a $564 million market cap by 2030 and $1 trillion in 2035.
What is the stock price forecast for Netflix in 2024? ›
Netflix Stock Price Forecast 2024-2025
The forecasted Netflix price at the end of 2024 is $664 - and the year to year change +36%. The rise from today to year-end: +9%. In the middle of 2024, we expect to see $613.
Is Netflix a buy hold or sell? ›
Is Netflix stock a Buy, Sell or Hold? Netflix stock has received a consensus rating of buy. The average rating score is Baa2 and is based on 66 buy ratings, 24 hold ratings, and 6 sell ratings.
However, as noted, things have turned south since then. Check out the above chart and you'll see that if you invested $1,000 in NFLX stock 20 years ago – and did not sell at the peak – today you would be sitting on not quite $139,000. That's still a terrific return, of course.
Is it time to invest in Netflix? ›
Fair Value Estimate for Netflix
With its 2-star rating, we believe Netflix's stock is overvalued compared with our long-term fair value estimate of $425, which implies a multiple of 25 times our 2024 earnings per share forecast.
How long will it take for an $1000 investment to double in size when invested at the rate of 8% per year? ›
For example, if an investment scheme promises an 8% annual compounded rate of return, it will take approximately nine years (72 / 8 = 9) to double the invested money.
What is the fair price for Netflix stock? ›
As of 2024-05-11, the Fair Value of Netflix Inc (NFLX) is 373.35 USD. This value is based on the Peter Lynch's Fair Value formula. With the current market price of 610.87 USD, the upside of Netflix Inc is -38.9%.
What was Netflix stock price when it went public? ›
After initially offering its stock at $15 per share on May 23, 2002, Netflix closed its first day of trading at $16.75, or $1.20 per present-day share after adjusting for stock splits, according to data from Yahoo Finance.
What will Disney stock be worth in 2025? ›
Long-Term Walt Disney Stock Price Predictions
| Year | Prediction | Change |
|---|
| 2025 | $ 109.80 | 3.78% |
| 2026 | $ 113.96 | 7.71% |
| 2027 | $ 118.27 | 11.79% |
| 2028 | $ 122.75 | 16.02% |
2 more rowsNetflix is expected to add 5 million subscribers in the first quarter ended March, according to LSEG data. While that is nearly three times the 1.8 million additions it saw in the same period last year, it would mark a slowdown from the bumper growth it witnessed in the last two quarters of 2023.
Is Netflix a buy, sell, or hold? ›
Is Netflix stock a Buy, Sell or Hold? Netflix stock has received a consensus rating of buy. The average rating score is Baa2 and is based on 66 buy ratings, 24 hold ratings, and 6 sell ratings.
Will Netflix stock grow? ›
Expect a slowdown
For the company's valuation to rise approximately four-fold over the next 11 years, it implies an annualized increase of about 13%. That's not a wildly bullish outcome. In the past 10 years, Netflix's market cap soared by more than 1,100%.
