30-year fixed mortgage rate forecast in the U.S. 2026 | Statista (2024)

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30-year fixed mortgage rate forecast in the U.S. 2026 | Statista? ›

The 10-year treasury constant maturity

Beyond the 35 percent of economists who expect rates to stay high through the end of 2026, 1 in 4 economists (24 percent) see rates holding above 2.5 percent until the end of 2025, while a smaller share (12 percent) see rates sticking at a restrictive level until the end of 2027 or later.

One reason is that as the Federal Reserve presumably begins to cut rates, the bond market is expected to become less volatile, leading to a slight decline in mortgage rates. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as of Thursday was 6.99%. By the final quarter of 2025, Fannie Mae expects that to slide to 6.0%.

Interest Rates for 2021 to 2027. CBO projects that the interest rates on 3-month Treasury bills and 10-year Treasury notes will average 2.8 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively, during the 2021–2027 period. The federal funds rate is projected to average 3.1 percent.

The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.

Importantly, the SEP projects that the Federal Funds rate will fall to 4.6% in 2024, 3.9% in 2025, and 3.1% in 2026.

MBA: Rates Will Decline to 6.4% In its April Mortgage Finance Forecast, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that mortgage rates will fall from 6.8% in the first quarter of 2024 to 6.4% by the fourth quarter. The industry group expects rates will fall below the 6% threshold in the fourth quarter of 2025.

According to their latest forecast for 30-year mortgage rates in October 2023, they expect them to range from 7.40% to 7.86%, with an average of 7.63%. They also predict that mortgage rates will peak at 9.41% in May 2024, before gradually declining to 3.67% by November 2027.

It's possible that rates will one day go back down to 3%, though if current trends hold that's not likely to happen anytime soon.

What is the best 30-year mortgage rate ever? ›

2021: The lowest 30-year mortgage rates ever

And it kept falling to a new record low of just 2.65% in January 2021. The average mortgage rate for that year was 2.96%.

Once you find a rate that is an ideal fit for your budget, lock in the rate as soon as possible. There is no way to predict with certainty whether a rate will go up or down in the weeks or even months it sometimes takes to close your loan.

In the fall of 1981, the average 30-year mortgage rate reached an all-time high of 18.63%. We'll examine mortgage trends for the past five decades and look ahead to see what borrowers can expect in 2024.

One reason being that as the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates, the bond market is expected to become less volatile, leading to a slight decline in mortgage rates. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as of Friday is 6.91%. By the final quarter of 2025, Fannie Mae expects that to slide to 6.0%.

Last year, the White House projection for bill rates in 2030 was 2.4%. Such a level would be much higher than has been typical since the turn of the century. Three-month bill rates averaged around 1.5% over that period.

Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years

ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter. Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.

But until the Fed sees evidence of slowing economic growth, interest rates will stay higher for longer. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the mid-6% range through the end of 2024, potentially dipping into high-5% territory by the end of 2025.

In 2025, the range of target rates was 2.50%-4.25%, on the low end, to 4.50%-5.75%, on the high end. The median 2025 fed funds rate projection was 3.9%, a 1.7-point fall from the 5.6% median fed funds target rate for year-end 2023.

Savings account rates will likely go down in 2024 when the Federal Reserve cuts its rate. A high-yield savings account is still a good place for savings you may need to access occasionally, like an emergency fund.